-Image credit to BleacherReport
Just for a little preface, I wrote the following article back on April 5th when the regular season was coming to a close and the MVP race was as close as ever. It was meant to be my take on who would ultimately win the MVP race and I never actually published it. Seeing as Joel Embiid was just crowned MVP, I felt it only fitting that I should interject my own 1-month-old opinions on why he won. Or, maybe I just wanted to flex that I called the MVP race correctly. Whatever. The following article details why I believed Joel Embiid was destined to win his well deserved MVP this year.
We’re all familiar with how close the MVP race this year has been thus far. It’s been a battle of the big men. Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have been vying for the top spot in the MVP rankings with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a close third place. These same three players have basically been the top three MVP candidates for the last three years now. For most of the 2022-2023 season, Nikola Jokic was first atop the MVP rankings, averaging a triple double at one point. However, over the last month, Joel Embiid has climbed the rankings, shifting the MVP odds in his favor, and becoming the favorite to win MVP. However, Embiid’s dominance is not what is going to lose Nikola Jokic what would be his third MVP trophy in a row. It’s voter fatigue.
Over the last month or so, Joel Embiid has gone on a monster run. He has had one of the most dominant months for an NBA center ever. The 76ers went on an 8-game win streak during March, and Joel Embiid started April with a huge 52 points and 13 boards to win the game. Joel Embiid is going off right now, and the popular narrative is that this month’s dominance shows why he should be MVP over Jokic. However, Jokic and Embiid, have both had amazing seasons. Jokic is averaging a whopping 24.8/11.9/9.8, just 0.2 assists a game away from averaging a triple double for the season. Embiid is averaging an equally dominant 33.1/10.2/4.2, currently leading the league in ppg. Jokic has led the Nuggets to the 1st seed in the West, while Embiid has led the 76ers to the 3rd seed in the East; surprisingly, both teams have the same win percentage. What’s interesting is that these stats are extremely similar to their last two years’ stats as well.
In the 2021-2022 season, Jokic averaged 27.1/13.8/7.9, leading the Nuggets to the 6th seed in the West, while Embiid averaged 30.6/11.7/4.2, leading the 76ers to the 4th seed in the East. In the 2020-2021 season, Jokic averaged 26.4/10.8/8.3 bringing the nuggets to the 3rd seed in the West, and Embiid averaged 28.5/10.6/2.8, bringing the 76ers to the 1st seed in the East. Over the last three seasons Joel Embiid has always scored more points than Nikola Jokic, gotten slightly less rebounds, and recorded far less assists. Both players have grown at similar rates. Apart from this season, Embiid has also brought the 76ers to a higher seed than Jokic’s Nuggets over the last three seasons; the 76ers and the Nuggets still have the same win percentage this season, however. Therefore, one could argue that Jokic is having his best year yet out of the last three because of the near triple double average and first seed in the West. However, Joel Embiid, about to get another scoring title and bringing the 76ers to a similar seed as the last 3 years, is now better than Nikola Jokic? What changed? Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic have been just as dominant over the last three seasons as they are this season, but Nikola Jokic won MVP the last two seasons and now Embiid is favored to win MVP this season. The cause: voter fatigue.
The main thing that is making people favor Embiid over Jokic in MVP voting is the narrative. You hear things like “Embiid’s push for the playoffs over the last month shows why he is an MVP” or “Joel Embiid finally deserves to win MVP”. The truth is that people realized that if Nikola Jokic won MVP again, he would be the first player to win MVP three seasons in a row since Larry Bird. Nobody wants that to happen. Although Nikola Jokic is undoubtedly one of the most skilled centers we’ve ever seen play the game, we’d be comparing him to the greatness of Larry Bird, a face of all of basketball, and saying that he had a more dominant three year run than any other player between Larry Bird and himself, including players like Lebron, Jordan, Shaq, Kobe, and many others. The truth is people are tired of seeing Jokic win and want a change of pace.
This has happened before. Take Steve Nash who won back-to-back MVPs in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 seasons and then lost the MVP to Dirk Nowitzki in the 2006-2007 season. In his 05/06 MVP season, Nash averaged 18.8/4.2/10.5, and in his 06/07 season, he averaged 18.6/3.5/11.6. Pretty similar numbers, right? In his 05/06 season, Dirk averaged 26.6/9.0/2.8, and in his 06/07 MVP season, he averaged 24.6/8.9/3.4. Also, pretty similar stats. What changed? It wasn’t the drastic changes in seeding. Nash’s Suns went from 54 and 28 in his MVP season to 61 and 21 the next season, and Dirk’s Mavericks went from 60 and 22 in 05/06 to 67 and 15 in his MVP season. Both teams won 7 more games in the 06/07 season compared to the 05/06 season.
So what changed? People wanted something new, something refreshing. Voter fatigue is a real thing where if someone wins enough, people don’t want to see them win anymore. That’s why Steve Nash lost his possible third MVP in a row to Dirk Nowitzki. Now, there are plenty of times where back-to-back MVPs just regress in their stats. In those cases, it’s not voter fatigue that causes them to lose the MVP again, but just that they have worse stats than they did the previous year. Voter fatigue comes into play when there is no regression in stats or skill. When there is no other reason not to vote for the same player to win MVP again, people choose to vote for what’s new because they are tired of the same people always winning. After two years of winning MVP, voters lose interest, which is why a player hasn’t been an MVP for three years in row since Larry Bird. To win MVP three years in a row, a player would have to be so spectacular that he would overcome all the nostalgia of the past greats who won three MVPs in a row.
The bottom line is that, if Nikola Jokic does not win MVP this year, it will be entirely the product of voter fatigue. That is not to say that the argument can’t be made that Joel Embiid statistically deserves the MVP award, but he had been averaging comparably high numbers the two years prior and Nikola Jokic won. It’s just to say that the only reason that people would suddenly value Embiid over Jokic when they are doing the same things this year that they have been for the last two years is that they are tired of seeing Jokic win.
- Credit to Basketball Reference for the stats
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